Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,260$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(622 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $149$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(36.9 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.1}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(117.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $738$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $80,422$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(7.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,723.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 98.6)}}\) (asimptote \(91,723.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,743$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,555.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,555.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $74,679$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,268$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(101.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,667.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,667.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $255$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(108 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{244.5}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(244.5\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $261$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,453$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,241.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,241.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $329$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(124 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{326.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(326.0\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $174$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $14,028$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(4.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,994.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(12,994.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $615$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(245 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(86.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{598.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(598.9\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $630$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,907$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(915 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(120.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,818.0}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 29.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,818.0\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.83 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(136.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $72$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $69,849$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{61,553.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(61,553.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,845$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(80.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,629.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,629.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $42,414$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $306,309$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(7.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{288,951.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.4)}}\) (asimptote \(288,951.5\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $46,286$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,057.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 48.1)}}\) (asimptote \(44,057.8\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $258,579$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $248,070$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(8.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238,290.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(238,290.8\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,154$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,364.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(34,364.4\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,456$ on 2020-08-02
